Coincidentally I was researching Sintana Energy ($SEI) right before reading your post. They have small stakes in PEL 83 (Mopane) and PEL 90 (Kapana-1X) which you both mentioned. As well as PEL 87 (Saturn) and some others.
Have you ever looked at them? The stock has seen a recent drop on the Kapana miss. Although management still seems optimistic. Does that miss materially lower their chances in PEL 90?
Besides that PEL 83 alone could be worth more than their current market cap. 10B of barrels with 30% recovery rate and $2.5 per barrel would be ~$1.2 per share (current price is $0.72). Or do any of these numbers seem too optimistic?
I'm also not sure how long these thing usually take till monetization. Cash burn isn't too bad but opportunity cost could be a factor.
Yes PEL 83 drilling results have exceeded expectations. Their first 3 Mopane wells were good, which included 1-2 appraisals of their primary target. The fourth was mixed but I think was to test the boundary after the prior discoveries. They have a lot of prospects left in PEL 83. Galp would be smart to fund a third exploration campaign
PEL 90 Kapana was not commercial discovery. There may well still be value in 90 but I’m not as optimistic on it. Mopane PEL 83 is was a world class discovery
I like PEL 87 as a prospect but it does not yet have a visible drilling campaign. One likely comes eventually but it will require patience. Focus should be on 83
Thanks for the comment, John. For me, each write-up is like an Exploration Well to help gauge interest in various topics. Your time and feedback is much appreciated.
It's the Gulf of America now, Tommy 😂
Someone else told me it should be Gulf of Texas!
Interesting as always, Tommy!
Coincidentally I was researching Sintana Energy ($SEI) right before reading your post. They have small stakes in PEL 83 (Mopane) and PEL 90 (Kapana-1X) which you both mentioned. As well as PEL 87 (Saturn) and some others.
Have you ever looked at them? The stock has seen a recent drop on the Kapana miss. Although management still seems optimistic. Does that miss materially lower their chances in PEL 90?
Besides that PEL 83 alone could be worth more than their current market cap. 10B of barrels with 30% recovery rate and $2.5 per barrel would be ~$1.2 per share (current price is $0.72). Or do any of these numbers seem too optimistic?
I'm also not sure how long these thing usually take till monetization. Cash burn isn't too bad but opportunity cost could be a factor.
If you have any insights I'd love to hear it.
There was a write-up on VIC for more background: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SINTANA_ENERGY_INC/5477107705/messages/228965#description
And their corporate presentation: https://sintanaenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/sei_corp_presentation_jan24.pdf
Yes PEL 83 drilling results have exceeded expectations. Their first 3 Mopane wells were good, which included 1-2 appraisals of their primary target. The fourth was mixed but I think was to test the boundary after the prior discoveries. They have a lot of prospects left in PEL 83. Galp would be smart to fund a third exploration campaign
PEL 90 Kapana was not commercial discovery. There may well still be value in 90 but I’m not as optimistic on it. Mopane PEL 83 is was a world class discovery
Thanks. Any thoughts on PEL 87?
I like PEL 87 as a prospect but it does not yet have a visible drilling campaign. One likely comes eventually but it will require patience. Focus should be on 83
I really enjoy reading your write ups, Tommy, and learn new stuff every time. Cheers John
Thanks for the comment, John. For me, each write-up is like an Exploration Well to help gauge interest in various topics. Your time and feedback is much appreciated.