11 Comments
User's avatar
LeeDP's avatar

Tommy we bask in the garden of your turbulence! Keep it up!

Expand full comment
Tommy Lee's avatar

Thank you for reading, Lee. “Garden of Turbulence” is creative — you should be the one writing!

Expand full comment
john.dentice's avatar

Another great piece, thanks Tommy. Cheers John

Expand full comment
Tommy Lee's avatar

Thanks for reading, John! No shortage of topics to cover in this industry, only time.

Expand full comment
Walker's avatar

Great write-up. Lots to digest here.

Expand full comment
Tommy Lee's avatar

Thank you Walker, you know where to reach me if you have questions

Expand full comment
BigOrange3's avatar

Great piece. Thank you

Expand full comment
Ronald A Yoder's avatar

Excellent article! This sends me into all kinds of interesting investing directions! If we were playing baseball, what is your best guess of which inning we're currently in? I'm new to the sector of offshore drilling, which prompts me to ask. Also, and only if this isn't a silly question for me to ask, what's your best guess of how many months or years there is ahead of us, before things sort of get "topish", or "is this time likely to be different"? As you can tell, I've got a lot of catching up to do on this sector and investing in it.

Expand full comment
Tommy Lee's avatar

Thanks Ronald. If 2021 was the 1st inning of a recovery, probably 4th or 5th inning. Most recent 1-2 innings were bad. I’m constructive on the demand picture the next 5 years, absent oil volatility. Would be helpful getting to $600k dayrates if either a small handful of rigs are scrapped or we see consolidation. Seeing some of the smaller 1-3 rig companies merge would also be helpful.

Expand full comment
Ronald A Yoder's avatar

Thanks for this added info! I know know what to look for. I found it instructive and helpful to my thesis that OFOS closed down in June, this being the Range Global Offshore Oil Services ETF. If an ETF can't make it work that tells me a lot about a sector, possibly even a bottom. Thanks, again, for your follow-up.

Expand full comment
Tommy Lee's avatar

I actually didn’t like that ETF’s construction. It should have had SBM Offshore, Odfjell, Seatrium, Golar LNG, a few others — those are important companies. I did notice it but thought it needed better holdings

Expand full comment